USA Swimming Has a Problem, But It’s Nowhere Near the Medal Table
The first night of finals on Saturday at the Paris La Defense Arena brought a familiar enough site for USA Swimming, with one gold and three total medals.
The second day of prelims on Sunday brought a far rarer occurrence for a program that has long been at the vanguard of global swimming.
Two American swimmers Sunday morning failed to make it out of their prelims heats for semifinals. Chris Guiliano faltered in the men’s 200 freestyle, swimming 1:47.60 to finish 19th. Emma Weber went 1:07.65 to land in a tie for 23rd in the women’s 100 breaststroke. In between, reigning gold medalist Chase Kalisz finished a distant 11th in the men’s 400 individual medley, missing out on the top eight in an event that goes straight from prelims to finals.
The U.S. would add three misses in the next two days, Luke Whitlock not making the men’s 800 free final in Monday’s prelims, Luca Urlando on Tuesday finishing 17th in the 200 butterfly and Katie Grimes falling to 10th in the 1500 free.
That is, by USA Swimming standards, a lot of misses, for the nation that perhaps more than even its medal potential reliably produces depth.
Just how rare was it?
Only one swimmer at each of the last four Olympics missed the top 16 for a prelims-semifinals-finals meet. It’s not the club you want to be in: Andrew Wilson in the men’s 100 breaststroke in Tokyo; Tom Shields in the men’s 200 butterfly in Rio; Kara Lynn Joyce (via a three-way swim-off) in the women’s 50 free in London; Amanda Beard in the 200 breast in Beijing. Through two days in Paris, the U.S. had already exceeded that count.
The last time the U.S. had multiple swimmers not make semifinals of an event at the same Olympics was in 2004, via Jason Lezak and Ian Crocker in the 100 free and Kristen Caverly missed the 200 back.
Kalisz joins Kieran Smith, who didn’t make the top eight in the men’s 400 free, among Americans missing finals. The only American to miss a final in such a format in the last two Games is Michael Brinegar, who did it twice in Tokyo. Americans went 12-for-12 in prelims-finals events in Rio. Four misses of finals in those events ties the 2012 Olympics for the most since 2000.
The Olympics will also have its first final since the Rio Olympics in 2016 that doesn’t feature an American. That’ll be the 200 fly, with Urlando and Thomas Heilman, who was eliminated in semis. You have to go back to the women’s 200 breaststroke in Rio for the last time that happened to the U.S.
Many of the events are relay legs, which is slightly more worrisome. Weber was likely to only play into the prelims of the women’s medley relay and not at all on the mixed medley, where male breaststrokers are the play. Guiliano was coming off the 400 free relay in which he won gold Saturday night, splitting 47.33, second among the Americans. He recovered Tuesday morning to make semis in the 100 free and was a solid if not spectacular 1:46.74 on the 800 free relay that got the job done in prelims but didn’t get a finals swim. That’s because Smith answered the call in the 800 free relay, as he always does, to help the U.S. take silver.
One bad swim is also no guarantee. Grimes was solid in the 400 IM, then struggled in the 1500. Guiliano could recover in his two events remaining, and Smith might yet play a relay role, a consummate relay cog for the U.S. down the years.
The trend, though, may be more gradual but also more enduring. Five of the seven have come in men’s events, which reflects a prevailing global growth of the sport. European men’s swimming has been excellent for the last half-decade, from the emergence in the British program to Italy’s stroke depth to transcendent stars like Leon Marchand and David Popovici, even when women’s swimming has been more locked in the U.S./Australia duopoly. That breadth is eating into the American advantage, even if the medal table doesn’t always reflect it.
It’s a worrying trend and one without an easy fix.
Past prelims struggles
(Prelims-semifinals-finals individual events)
- Paris 2024: Emma Weber (women’s 100 breast), Chris Giuliano (men’s 200 free), Luca Urlando (men’s 200 fly)
- Tokyo, 2021: Andrew Wilson (men’s 200 breast)
- Rio, 2016: Tom Shields (men’s 200 fly)
- London, 2012: Kara Lynn Joyce (women’s 50 free)
- Beijing, 2008: Amanda Beard (women’s 200 breast)
- Athens, 2004: Jason Lezak and Ian Crocker (both men’s 100 free), Kristen Caverly (women’s 200 back)
- Sydney, 2000: Pat Calhoun (men’s 100 breast), Tom Wilkens (men’s 200 breast), Courtney Shealy (women’s 100 back), Staciana Stitts (women’s 100 breast)
(Prelims-finals individual events)
- Paris, 2024: Chase Kalisz (men’s 400 IM), Kieran Smith (men’s 400 free), Luke Whitlock (men’s 800 free), Katie Grimes (women’s 1,500 free)
- Tokyo, 2021: Michael Brinegar (men’s 800 free, men’s 1,500 free)
- Rio, 2016: None
- London, 2012: Andrew Gemmell (men’s 1,500 free), Chloe Sutton (women’s 400 free), Kate Ziegler (women’s 800 free)
- Beijing, 2008: Peter Vanderkaay (men’s 1,500 free), Kate Ziegler (women’s 400 free and 800 free), Katie Hoff (women’s 800 free)
- Athens, 2004: Erik Vendt (men’s 1,500 free), Kayln Keller (women’s 400 free), Katie Hoff (women’s 400 IM)
- Sydney, 2000: None
