UFC Vegas 104 Gambling Preview: Who wins the Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze rematch?

Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze are set to run things back.

This Saturday, in the main event of UFC Vegas 104, Vettori and Dolidze rematch their 2023 fight that saw Vettori win a unanimous decision victory. Will things go differently this time around? And what about the rest of the UFC’s latest trip to the world’s mightiest APEX? Let’s dive in.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Marvin Vettori (-172)

This is a rematch that nobody asked for and one that Vettori even admits he didn’t realize he signed up for (Vettori said he thought he was fighting Roman Kopylov), and it’s no secret why. Vettori vs. Dolidze 1 wasn’t a bad fight but it wasn’t especially memorable with Vettori employing his tried and true method of out-working his opponent. Dolidze swung hard and had moments but Vettori is extremely durable and can simply outlast most opponents. This fight is 25 minutes instead of 15, which only serves to help Vettori. I like him to win in classic Vettori fashion, but you aren’t getting that much of a value by betting points so just play it safe with the straight bet.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-180)

Cortes-Acosta takes on Ryan Spann on the prelims in Spann’s heavyweight debut, and these odds feel generous. Spann is a mercurial fighter who basically either wins by knockout or guillotine or else loses. Cortes-Acosta, meanwhile, is nobody’s idea of exciting, but he’s proven to be more than serviceable at heavyweight, going 5-1 in the UFC. More importantly though, “Salsa Boy” has proven to be quite durable so I expect him to weather any early offense from Spann and then take over as the fight drags on.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Kevin Vallejos by KO/TKO (-150)

This is a big price for a prop bet like this, but I don’t care, I’m staking my claim: Vallejos is a future superstar.

Just 23 years old, Vallejos is making his UFC debut off the most recent Contender Series where I had him as one of my favorite prospects. Why? Well because he has super slick boxing already and he was actually on Contender Series in 2023 as well, losing an extremely competitive fight with Jean Silva. You’ve all seen what “Lord” has gone on to do in the UFC and Vallejos — at 22! — gave him all he could handle. Sure, he’s undersized against Seungwoo Choi, but I still expect him to dazzle.

Diyar Nurgozhay by KO/TKO (+100)

Speaking of Contender Series prospect squash matches, we’ve got another one on the prelims. Nurgozhay makes his UFC debut after a nasty knockout on the most recent season of Contender Series, taking on Brendson Ribeiro and as kindly as I can put this, this is a setup fight for Nurgozhay. The Kazakh fighter is an extremely promising light heavyweight prospect who throws big power shots, and Ribeiro probably shouldn’t even be in the UFC at this point and three of his four most recent losses have come by KO. 1+1=2.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Parlay

There are several Gimmick Parlays available this week (for instance, both Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Suyoung You were born on Dec. 11) but I have to go with one near and dear to my heart. Three fighters on the prelims are 2023 Contender Series products that I rated as “Big Paws on a Puppy” prospects, AKA Grade A prospects. We’re tying them all together.

Andre Lima (-430)

Lima looks to move to 4-0 in the UFC when he takes on Daniel Barez. Still just 26, Lima has a well-rounded game and can threaten on the feet and with submissions. Barez definitely has the edge in power, but Lima is the better grappler and more dynamic fighter.

Stephanie Luciano (-250)

Luciano takes on Sam Hughes in a strawweight bout that I expect her to show out in. Luciano isn’t the most technical fighter but she’s mean as hell, and I say that as a compliment. Mean is an underrated skill in MMA and one that should serve her well against Hughes, a very middle of the road fighter.

Carli Judice (-375)

Arguably the riskiest of the legs of this parlay, Judice is 26 years old and just 3-2 in her MMA career. That being said, I thought she won her debut bout against Gabriella Fernandes and she’s fighting someone equally as inexperienced as she is. I actually like Yuneisy Duben a fair amount as a prospect as well, but her 6-0 professional record doesn’t tell you that five of those wins came against opponents who were making their debuts. Judice is still raw but has the athleticism to compete right away against far better opposition and while Yuneisy has power, we have no idea if she has anything else based on her career thus far.

Parlay these three bets together for +118 odds.

Wrap Up

The gambling continues until morale improves! Yeesh! Total disaster of a weekend, continuing what has been a dreadful start to 2024. Oh well, gotta go forward to go back. Better press on.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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