Something intriguing is happening in New South Wales. Over the weekend, the Waratahs pulled off a major upset, toppling the Chiefs — a side many considered to be the benchmark of Super Rugby Pacific. Just one year ago, the Waratahs finished at the bottom of the ladder. Now, they’re suddenly in contention for a top-four finish. So what’s changed, and how much weight should we give to their latest win?
A squad overhaul
The transformation began with an enormous squad shake-up. During the off-season, the Waratahs made 51 player movements, the most of any Super Rugby team. For comparison, the Western Force — known for their aggressive recruitment — made 41.
While the Waratahs lost some international talent (notably Ned Hanigan and Mark Nawaqanitawase), they made up for it with a strategic raid on the disbanded Rebels. Key acquisitions like Andrew Kellaway and Rob Leota have added quality, experience, and edge to the squad.
The Suaalii effect
And then there’s Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. When Rugby Australia backed a multi-million dollar investment in him, there was widespread scepticism — myself included. It seemed risky. But now, halfway through his debut Super Rugby season, it’s clear: he was worth every cent.
(Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
While not yet perfect — and yes, Will Jordan still ranks ahead of him — Suaalii’s presence is undeniable. His size, speed, and footwork give the Waratahs a genuine attacking weapon out wide. In a team that thrives on involving its outside backs, his ability to create something from nothing — particularly from fullback — has been a game-changer.
McKellar’s blueprint
Perhaps the most important change didn’t happen on the field but in the coaching box. Dan McKellar has returned to Super Rugby after a mixed stint overseas. While his departure from Leicester to make way for Michael Cheika raised eyebrows, McKellar is quickly reminding fans why he’s such a respected coach.
His emphasis on structure and consistency mirrors his years spent in Canberra with the Brumbies. That influence is most evident in the Waratahs’ approach to the fly-half role. While Tane Edmed has shown flashes of brilliance since 2021, McKellar has opted for the more reliable Lawson Creighton, a savvy pick-up from the Reds, to steer the ship this season.
Echoes of 2014?
There are some striking parallels between this side and the Waratahs’ 2014 title-winning team:
- Both led by respected coaches — Cheika then, McKellar now
- Both anchored by composed fly-halves — Bernard Foley and now Creighton
- Both featured bruising back-rowers — Michael Hooper in 2014, Rob Leota now
- Both had electric ex-NRL stars providing spark from the back — Israel Folau then, Suaalii now
So… are they back?
Here’s the big question: Have the Waratahs transformed into genuine contenders?
My heart says yes, but my head says not quite.
They currently sit with five wins and three losses, but all five wins have come at home. That’s a serious red flag. Their away form continues to be their Achilles heel, something that’s plagued them for years. With six games remaining — four of them away — there’s reason to be concerned.
Their average losing margin away from home is 27 points this season. That’s not the profile of a title challenger.
As Moneyball’s Billy Beane famously said, “If you lose the last game of the season, nobody gives a s–t.”
If the Waratahs finished where they are currently, they’ll likely face the Chiefs. Only this time it will be in Hamilton, where the Tahs can expect to be blown out.
Verdict
Have the Waratahs turned a corner? Probably.
Are they back to their best? Not yet.
Can they make the playoffs? Yes.
Can they win it all? Not unless they fix their away record.
The foundation is there, but don’t buy in fully just yet.
