Having been proved right on the last two coach calls for Australia (hell no to Eddie Jones and yes to Joe Schmidt) before fashionable, allow me to make a credible case for Michael Cheika to be Wallabies’ head man again.
Cheika should assume control of the Wallabies for two seasons, encompassing a home World Cup.
Australia cannot afford to go out early in 2027. ‘Early’ is redefined in a home Cup: making a semifinal is the minimum. Just qualifying for knockouts is not enough. The pressure on hosts, as we saw in 2015 in England and 2023 in France, is intensified from any other context.
Imagine a bomb out, like the loss in Lyon, but this time in the ‘round of sixteen.’
Or picture the doom and gloom of ‘just a quarterfinal’ with the spectre of watching all the other Rugby Championship teams around for the last week’s matches. The energy, cash, unity, and the very soul of the game in Australia would take a severe battering. Now, picture a Wallaby grand final coming down to the last seconds, and a ferocious coach ready to walk into fire.
1. Australia cannot afford to give that task to a coach new to the Test arena
There is no coach currently available with more relevant, recent experience than Cheika in taking an underdog into the semifinals with exactly only two seasons (2022 and 2023 with Argentina), taking over from a 25% win rate coach (Mario Ledesma) and leading the Pumas to a top four spot in the Cup, having masterminded a tactical upset (25-18) in New Zealand in 2022, a landslide win over Australia (48-17) the same year, and peaking just on time after a Pool D opening loss to qualify and dispatch Wales 29-17 to make the semis.
Argentina was mentioned nowhere as a potential semifinalist before the Cup.
Cheika was spoken of by his team in awe, not just for his trademark ‘run over broken glass for me’ skills but acuity in building a rotating loose trio which had quadrants rather than strict roles, platooning locks, and a more disciplined exit game.
Head coach Michael Cheika and Julian Montoya of the Pumas talk to the media after winning The Rugby Championship match between the New Zealand All Blacks and Argentina Pumas at Orangetheory Stadium on August 27, 2022 in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
When he handed over the keys to his attack coach Felipe Contepomi the side was in good shape for a terrific 2024 season, built on Cheika’s base.
2. Cheika has evolved
In his first stint with the Wallabies, which included taking a team to the grand final of the Cup in 2015 but losing to eventual grand finalists England in the quarters, Cheika was better inspiration than introspection. Some coaches (Eddie Jones) derive the wrong conclusions from a bitter loss and steadily decline as the game moves on (Warren Gatland).
Cheika has done the opposite: within the tournaments he has coached in of late, his teams built, players became better, his game plans were more tailored, and he adjusted to losses with insight rather than anger.
From Randwick to Leinster to New South Wales to the Wallabies, Cheika has shown adaptation skills, even if at times he took a step backward.
The seeds of that intelligence were there for ages.
When he arrived at Leicester last year, the Tigers had just gone from Steve Borthwick to Richard Wigglesworth to Dan McKellar. McKellar is one of the good guys in elite sport but Leicester does not put up with long ‘cohesion building’ loss cycles.
The third-worst season in Tigers history ended McKellar’s tenure. Even though Cheika inherited a team shorn of its dominant carrier (Springbok Jasper Wiese, who played 79 times for Leicester and was Man of the Match in their 2022 League championship, the Players’ Player of the Year the next year as the Tigers finished third, and was in the Team of the Season for McKellar) and riddled with injury or Test duty disruption, Cheika has the same team in fourth spot, up from eighth the year before.
Along the way, both in the box and on live television, Cheika has demonstrated far more nuance in his understanding of modern attack, transition, set piece, and defensive shape. Players like England lock Ollie Chessum, Olly Cracknell (who had the tough task of replacing Wiese), and Izzy Perese have all credited Cheika for helping them lift from performance lulls.
Listen to Cheika dissect wins and losses now and he has the same tone; and is far deeper in his analysis. His relations with club media, assistant coaches, and the fanbase was strong.
3. His Aussie rivals need more time
Since he does not need the long cycle of other coaches (indeed the lesson is clear: a short-term deal is best for all) Cheika is the perfect bridge coach to give Les Kiss, McKellar, and Stephen Larkham two more seasons at club level, with an entire cycle to grow before the 2031 World Cup in America. The roles held by Kiss have spanned Director of Rugby to defence coach, but he is just beginning an impressive stint in Queensland.
(Photo by Kai Schwoerer/Getty Images)
McKellar is a fine man and knows how to build a pack which drives and is not easily beaten, but the Tigers story will have taught him a great deal upon which he will want to work. Larkham is another coach who may end up being best as an assistant at Test level, or plain excellent as a club head man. Larkham just turned 50 and McKellar is a youngish 48.
Much is made of how experienced grand finalist teams are in the World Cup, but the final four coaches tend also to be veterans. The exceptions prove the rule and tend to be firebrand types like Erasmus or Cheika. They tend to have a vision clear and impose it on their team.
Cheika will not want Schmidt in the background: this shows he is a head Test coach. Anyone who wants an advisor lurking is not ready to be the man who takes all the heat: win or lose.
Cheika has stood the test of time, he is not obsolete, he lifts teams quickly, he is a rabid Aussie, and is the best hope for Australia to lift hopes, dreams, fortunes, and a Cup in 2027.
