Six Predictions for 2025: Leon Marchand Will Add to World-Record Total
In one of the greatest individual performances in swimming history, Leon Marchand won four individual gold medals at the Paris Olympics, becoming only the third man to do so in one Games after Mark Spitz and Michael Phelps (twice). In each of his events, Marchand recorded the second-fastest time in history on the way to gold, including in his back-to-back wins over the defending Olympic champions in the 200 butterfly and 200 breaststroke.
In his final individual race, Marchand nearly broke the world record in the 200 IM, falling just six hundredths short of the mark Ryan Lochte swam 13 years ago in Shanghai. Marchand was a half-second under world-record pace with 50 meters remaining, but he fell off slightly on the freestyle leg.
In 2025, can Marchand make the slight improvements he needs to become the first man ever under 1:54? We’ll say that he gets the job done en route to a third consecutive world title in the event this summer in Singapore. Marchand has already broken Lochte’s world record in the short course 200 IM, clocking a time of 1:48.88 to beat the previous mark by three-quarters of a second.
It will be an unconventional year for Marchand, who will spend time training in Australia early this year following his withdrawal from the Short Course World Championships, but he should have sufficient preparation to make up that small margin in the short medley event.
Here are a few other predictions for the post-Olympic season, which will reach its peak at the World Aquatics Championships in Singapore in July:
Tang Qianting Will Break Long-Standing World Record
Tang Qianting — Photo Courtesy: Giorgio Perottino / Deepbluemedia / Insidefoto
While Marchand targets the 200 IM record and perhaps more, China’s Tang Qianting has a chance to knock off another iconic mark on the women’s side. Lilly King has been the standard-bearer in the 100 breaststroke since 2017, when she defeated Russia’s Yuliya Efimova in an iconic Olympic rematch at the World Championships. King clocked 1:04.13 that day, and no one came close to that mark until earlier this year, when Tang posted a mark of 1:04.39 at China’s Olympic selection meet, becoming the fourth-fastest woman in history.
The 20-year-old Tang is coming off a breakout year in which she won two world titles, in long course in February and in short course in December, and she captured Olympic silver behind veteran Tatjana (Schoenmaker) Smith in the event in Paris. In the 25-meter course, Tang clocked 1:02.38 to miss that world record by just two hundredths. Could she make up the small margin to grab the long course mark this year?
Gretchen Walsh to Continue Momentum With NCAA and World Titles
It’s no secret that the University of Virginia is heavily favored to win a fifth consecutive championship in NCAA women’s swimming and diving, and everyone expects Gretchen Walsh to continue her domination during her senior season with the Cavaliers. Walsh already owns the fastest yards times ever in the 50 and 100 free, 100 fly and 100 back by significant margins, and she could lower all of those marks this February and March.
And after setting her first long course world record, claiming Olympic silver in the 100-meter fly and dominating the Short Course World Championships, Walsh is poised to take the next step in her career in 2025 and claim a global title in the 50-meter pool, with her best chances coming in the sprint butterfly events.
Neutral Athlete Will Capture World Title
Russia officially remains banned from international swimming competition, but Russian natives competing as neutrals posted stellar results at the Short Course World Championships, both individually and in relays. Their six gold medals ranked second to the Americans’ 18, and the neutral athletes also claimed four silver medals. We predict that the success will continue in long course at the Singapore championships, with at least one gold medal.
The top contender will be Miron Lifintsev, an 18-year-old who won short course world titles in both the 50 and 100 back after swimming a long course 100 back time that would have been good enough to reach the Olympic podium. Ilya Borodin, the short course world champion in the 400 IM, will have trouble fending off Marchand in the long course version of that event, but Evgeniia Chikunova will have a strong title chance in the 200 breaststroke, an event in which she holds the world record and a best time more than one-and-a-half seconds ahead of any other swimmer all-time.
Cal-Texas Rivalry to Resume at NCAA Men’s Championships
Texas will be back in the national-title hunt, with Luke Hobson playing a starring role — Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick
At 11 of the past 14 NCAA Men’s Championships, Cal and Texas have occupied the top-two spots in the team standings. The Golden Bears have actually finished top-two every year since 2010, but Texas fell all the way to eighth last year in the final season for legendary head coach Eddie Reese. But following Reese’s retirement and the hiring of Bob Bowman to lead the program, Texas is back in the hunt and ready to move back into contention.
Arizona State, which finished second in 2023 and first last year under Bowman’s guidance, will still be in the mix under new head coach Herbie Behm, and both Florida and Indiana are loaded with talent. But Cal has a veteran core featuring Destin Lasco, Jack Alexy, Bjorn Seeliger, Gabriel Jett and , Dare Rose and Keaton Jones while returning Longhorns Luke Hobson, Will Modglin and Nate Germonprez are joined by newcomers Hubert Kos, Chris Guiliano and Rex Maurer. We think these two teams will again occupy the top-two spots, with the order to be determined.
Another Year of No 3:39s
One other long-standing world record is poised to last another year. Paul Biedermann recently lost his short course world record in the 200 free, but his long course marks over both 200 and 400 meters have remained. The 400 free record looked like it was in trouble entering the Olympic year after Australia’s Sam Short and Tunisia’s Ahmed Hafnaoui each clocked 3:40s at the 2023 World Championships, but the event slowed down in 2024, with Short missing the Olympic final and Hafnaoui not swimming in Paris.
Lukas Martens approached the record with a time of 3:40.33 in April 2024 before he swam slower on his way to gold in Paris, but history suggests that those last few tenths are the hardest to overcome in pursuit of that record. It has lasted 15 years, and we’re guessing 2025 will be the 16th year that Biedermann’s record survives.
