For the first time in memory, the Wallabies have ventured up north and, for once, even they recognise they’re rank outsiders.
The usual bullish Wallabies have barely whispered about the possibility of ending their 40-year grand slam drought. That’s what comes after not just years, but a generation of defeat.
Instead, Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies have spoken about the need to build from their Rugby Championship campaign where they finished with just one victory from six Tests.
Usually, a coach’s future would be on the chopping block with results like that. But after three coaches in as many years, the penny has dropped that the Wallabies’ tale of woe extends beyond the coach.
Nonetheless, there is the expectation that the Wallabies will compete against Steve Borthwick’s English, especially after yet another close defeat to the All Blacks left a strong waft of trepidation and anxiety in the air at Twickenham.
Joe Schmidt’s Wallabies are days out from their opening Grand Slam Test against England. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
As the Wallabies know, especially their former coach Dave Rennie, gallant defeats only give someone so much time, especially when they add up one after the other.
Indeed, the last time the Wallabies ventured to these corners of the world in 2022, Rennie’s side lost three consecutive Tests by a combined total of five points but that wasn’t enough to spare him the axe.
The Wallabies will come up against an English side that is used to rolling up their sleeves and staying in the fight.
They might not have the threats the All Blacks or Springboks do, but they usually stick to the principles of international rugby that keep them in the fight every time they take to the field: they take the points when on offer and contest everything.
It’s why England has won ten of the past 11 encounters against the Wallabies because they’ve stayed in the fight and then executed in the final quarter, often blowing the men in gold away when the pressure has reached boiling point.
England head into the Test with the benefit of having a run under their belts.
George Ford’s two late misses off the boot allowed the All Blacks to scrape home at Twickenham on November 02, 2024 in London. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Although they ultimately went down by two points against the All Blacks, Borthwick’s men would have walked away victors had George Ford nailed one of two extremely gettable kicks. He didn’t.
So what are the crunch selection talks Schmidt will be having with his assistants over the next 24 hours?
The Skelton conundrum
Footage of Will Skelton being warmly embraced by his teammates was a welcome sight in recent days.
The giant lock scored a stunning try for La Rochelle on Saturday and a day later was in camp with the Wallabies.
But given he will have just two to three training sessions before the weekend’s clash, will Schmidt throw him in so quickly?
History suggests he won’t.
When Marika Koroibete and Angus Bell joined up with the Wallabies ahead of The Rugby Championship, Schmidt decided to hold them both back a week to ensure they were across the detail of their game plan.
Although Skelton’s size and physicality will be hugely tempting against a physical English pack, that will probably occur with Skelton, too.
Unless Schmidt opts for a 6-2 forwards-heavy bench, it wouldn’t surprise if Schmidt first rolls Skelton out against Wales and Scotland – the two Tests the Wallabies will sense they have a genuine opportunity to take home the chocolates.
If Schmidt rolls the dice and plays him out from the start, his selection would likely see a back-row tweak with Rob Valetini shifted to No.8 to accommodate a taller lineout operator at blindside flanker. But that move is more likely a week away.
The Tupou effect
Mike Cron would have been licking his lips at what the All Blacks did to the English scrum in the final 20 minutes at Twickenham.
With the All Black eight points behind, Ofa Tuʻungafasi and Pasilio Tosi entered the fray and the props swung the Test by earning the visitors a couple of crucial penalties. The duo exposed Fin Baxter’s rawness and went after the young loose-head.
Cron will be hoping his Wallabies front-row can do the same.
Although the English pack scrummed well for the opening hour, Cron and Schmidt will be considering whether it’s best to start or finish with Taniela Tupou.
Taniela Tupou has predominantly been used as a starter by Joe Schmidt. But could that change on the end of year tour? (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Schmidt has used Tupou as a starter in 2024, but that’s more likely because of the concerns surrounding his fitness – or lack thereof.
If he was to come off the bench, Tupou could be the ace in the deck that helps swing the game if it’s in the balance.
The other factor worth considering is the growing confidence of Allan Alaalatoa, who is getting better with every Test after a slow return following his Achilles injury last year.
As for who starts at hooker, Brandon Paenga-Amosa’s scrummaging prowess will likely see him strongly considered to start.
How soon is too soon for the game’s new poster boy?
Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii has already helped put rugby back in the public consciousness, with the $1.6 million man regularly fronting the media since switching codes last month.
But should he play against England? And, if he does, where should he play?
By selecting Suaalii, Schmidt would be breaking the blueprint model that worked so well for Israel Folau and Marika Koroibete.
Folau made his debut in front of a few thousand in a Super Rugby trial match against the Crusaders and spent nine months, including a pre-season, before starring against the British and Irish Lions.
Koroibete, meanwhile, was brought on the same end of year tour that Suaalii has been brought on but was picked as a ‘development player’.
The former NRL winger then spent an entire Super Rugby campaign and didn’t play in the first half-a-dozen Tests the next year as Koroibete got up to speed with rugby before debuting against Argentina.
Between the two former NRL converts, they have five John Eales Medals between them.
Joseph-Aukuso Sua’ali’i and Samu Kerevi at training. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
On the evidence of how Folau took to Test rugby against the Lions, Suaalii, whose last rugby match was five years ago, doesn’t need to be rushed in against England to star against the Lions next year.
If he plays and struggles, what does Schmidt do next?
And, perhaps just as pertinently, what does it do for the honeymoon period and the confidence in the nation if Suaalii is found out because he’s had three weeks with the Wallabies since transitioning?
If Schmidt does throw Suaalii in the deep end it will likely be in the No.23 jersey.
Andrew Kellaway and Dylan Pietsch did enough against the All Blacks in Wellington to earn another shot on the wings, while it would be radical to throw Suaalii into the midfield from the outset.
Kerevi’s time
Hunter Paisami’s absence has left the Wallabies with just one specialist inside centre in their squad: Samu Kerevi.
The logical move would be to start Kerevi.
Unlike Skelton, the 31-year-old joined the Wallabies for the week leading up to their departure to London.
As such, Kerevi, who played his first match in five months late last month in a trial for his Japanese outfit, wouldn’t be thrown in the deep end like his highly regarded teammate.
Samu Kerevi at Wallabies training in London. Photo: Julius Dimataga, Wallabies Media
The only other option would be to start Len Ikitau at inside centre and play either Andrew Kellaway or Suaalii at outside centre.
Although it could happen down the road, it would unnecessarily complicate something that needs to be kept as simple as possible.
Is there anything to gain by opting for a forwards heavy bench?
The Springboks consistently roll out six forwards on their bench. Sometimes they even name seven.
But the Wallabies don’t have the luxury of being so cute.
Sixteen months ago Eddie Jones did the same against Argentina and it backfired when Carter Gordon was forced to come on at inside centre.
The only way Schmidt names six forwards on his bench – something Borthwick did last week – is if Skelton is picked. If he isn’t, it’s unnecessary for the Wallabies to go that way.
Not only do they not have enough game-changers in the pack to do that, they don’t have enough backs who can cover positions from fly-half to fullback.
Ben Donaldson is the only one who can play both positions at present, but do the Wallabies gain much by doing that? Probably not.
